Get Sherlock Holmes and Columbo to Help You on Your Way to Success

Get Sherlock Holmes and Columbo to Help You on Your Way to Success

You are presented with challenges every day in everything you do and use your mind to work out what to do. If you get the right answer you succeed and the wrong answer leads to failure. There is a big battle going on between Cognitive Scientists about how your mind makes decisions. One school, which could be called the Holmes school, believes logic is the route to the solutions of your mind. Everything follows deduction and rules of logic and leads to your answer. The other school, which could be called the Columbo school, is more probabilistic in character and believes it is the balance of probabilities that weighs out your solutions. It will be a while before they settle their arguments but for you both tools are obtainable to you.

Let us say you want to decide between decision A and decision B. Both are very different and one will rule to your success and one will rule to your failure but you don’t know which. First of all bring Sherlock Holmes on to the scene and build up all the deduction and logic chains of each decision. Follow the arguments and see what the logic tells you. If there are logical inconsistencies mirror on what that might average for each decision. Is one solution logically stronger than the other? consistent of this line of thinking which choice seems the best for you? Put your choice down and put it to one side.

Now bring Columbo on to the case no doubt arriving in his raincoat. Look at any attribute of each decision and start to weigh the probabilities that will flow. Wander in and out of each decision and see what turns up and what the probabilities are associated with them. You should start to notice very different aspects of each decision from the work carried out by Sherlock. As you do so start to notice which decision now takes favour. Take another probabalisitc look from a random point and see how your ideas develop. After a number of iterations see which decision you want to choose now.

If both Sherlock and Columbo agree then you probably have a strong decision obtainable to you. It will only be strong based on the information you have so keep updating your beliefs as new information comes along. But this is the easier case and you proceed with confidence. If Sherlock and Columbo disagree you now need to make a call. This should be done with consideration of the ecosystem you are in. What will be benefited more a logically sound decision that then fails or a risky decision where the probabilities work against you.

Inviting Sherlock Holmes and Columbo to help you with the decisions you take will make you unprotected to far more of the success you want.

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